Could Ron Paul Have a Shot in Iowa?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ron-paul-is-for-real-in-iowa-seriously/2011/11/17/gIQAoSM7UN_blog.html

Ron Paul is that little engine that could for so many Americans, but recent polls are suggesting that he may have a feasible chance in Iowa this coming January.

His numbers are closely following those of the "top" candidates and although Romney, Cain, and Perry may not be paying that much attention, others absolutely are. “He has certainly broadened his coalition from the ‘rage against the machine’ types that primarily comprised his supporters in 2008,” said one senior Iowa Republican operative granted anonymity to speak candidly about Paul’s prospects. “The expanded coalition includes more traditional activists — as a number of GOP county chairs have endorsed his campaign, as have a handful of legislators."

It certainly must have helped that Paul spent $1.35 million on TV ads in Iowa, emphasizing that he has stuck to his ideas about "fiscal responsibility" more so than any of his opponents. One of his ads attacks his opponents lack of fiscal responsibility for instance:



In addition to his effective ads, Ron Paul has gotten personal with supporters - one poll reported that 67% of his supporters had been contacted by the Paul campaign by either e-mail, phone, door-to-door, or other means. He is growing a bigger base support by promoting his values and it also works in his favor that the fewer people are likely to show up for this caucus. “Turnout will probably be lower than in 2008 because there are not the kind of hyper-developed ground efforts like we saw in 2008, 2000, or 1996,” said Gentry Collins, a former executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa. “I think that benefits a candidate like Paul because the depth of his appeal will guarantee him a minimum number.”

All in all, there are reasons to give Paul the benefit of the doubt in Iowa, but still, many say although his support base is very loyal and growing, it is not growing at a fast enough rate to make an impact in the race.