http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ron-paul-is-for-real-in-iowa-seriously/2011/11/17/gIQAoSM7UN_blog.html
Ron Paul is that little engine that could for so many Americans, but recent polls are suggesting that he may have a feasible chance in Iowa this coming January.
His numbers are closely following those of the "top" candidates and although Romney, Cain, and Perry may not be paying that much attention, others absolutely are. “He has certainly broadened his coalition from the ‘rage against the machine’ types that primarily comprised his supporters in 2008,” said one senior Iowa Republican operative granted anonymity to speak candidly about Paul’s prospects. “The expanded coalition includes more traditional activists — as a number of GOP county chairs have endorsed his campaign, as have a handful of legislators."
It certainly must have helped that Paul spent $1.35 million on TV ads in Iowa, emphasizing that he has stuck to his ideas about "fiscal responsibility" more so than any of his opponents. One of his ads attacks his opponents lack of fiscal responsibility for instance:
In addition to his effective ads, Ron Paul has gotten personal with supporters - one poll reported that 67% of his supporters had been contacted by the Paul campaign by either e-mail, phone, door-to-door, or other means. He is growing a bigger base support by promoting his values and it also works in his favor that the fewer people are likely to show up for this caucus. “Turnout will probably be lower than in 2008 because there are not the kind of hyper-developed ground efforts like we saw in 2008, 2000, or 1996,” said Gentry Collins, a former executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa. “I think that benefits a candidate like Paul because the depth of his appeal will guarantee him a minimum number.”
All in all, there are reasons to give Paul the benefit of the doubt in Iowa, but still, many say although his support base is very loyal and growing, it is not growing at a fast enough rate to make an impact in the race.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
The Rise of Gingrich
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/newt-gingrich-on-the-rise-says-hopefully-im-going-to-be-more-disciplined/2011/11/16/gIQAeSVkSN_story.html
It seems like almost all of the Republican candidates have had there moment to shine so far in the race, except Romney of course, and keeping up the trend is Newt Gingrich with a recent boost in the polls.
We thought we had lost him completely back in June, and up until recently he hasn't exactly been one of the GOP's shining stars; however, with his performance in debates Gingrich looks like he's getting his chance. As always, though, the skeptics, including some of his own long-time friends, agree that Gingrich has to stay extremely focused and disciplined and deal with media scrutiny very well in order to keep from losing this momentary leg-up. “'Newt has to remain uncommonly disciplined — totally focused, no hissy fits — and continue to be the adult that he has been during the election season so far,' said Ken Duberstein, a chief of staff in the Reagan White House and a friend of Gingrich’s for more than three decades." Another of Gingrich's former colleagues said anonymously, “The worst in Newt comes out when he is doing well.”
And Newt doesn't deny that he has a lot of work to do to ensure he doesn't make statements that come back to bite him in the you-know-what. With a past history of making comments about President Obama having a "Kenyan, anti-colonial" view of the world or at one point saying he believed in mandatory healthcare, Gingrich realises that he needs, "...to be more disciplined."
He also has vowed not to attack Romney, believing that he does not need to try and take his votes away. Gingrich wants to focus on big picture issues instead of playing dirty. That, however, does not stop others from playing dirty as he already got a taste of critisim with fliers in Iowa that served to remind the religious folk there about his three marriages. But Gingrich acknowledges that scrutiny comes with running for the presidential office and with the help of his family "coaching" him to stay "calm," he feels like he is ready to brave the storm ahead.
It will be very exciting to see if his rise in popularity will die out in the next few weeks or if we are actually starting to see the real portion of the race begin. I think between the other trailing candidates Gingrich may well have a good shot right now, how good it will be against Romney is another question, however.
It seems like almost all of the Republican candidates have had there moment to shine so far in the race, except Romney of course, and keeping up the trend is Newt Gingrich with a recent boost in the polls.
We thought we had lost him completely back in June, and up until recently he hasn't exactly been one of the GOP's shining stars; however, with his performance in debates Gingrich looks like he's getting his chance. As always, though, the skeptics, including some of his own long-time friends, agree that Gingrich has to stay extremely focused and disciplined and deal with media scrutiny very well in order to keep from losing this momentary leg-up. “'Newt has to remain uncommonly disciplined — totally focused, no hissy fits — and continue to be the adult that he has been during the election season so far,' said Ken Duberstein, a chief of staff in the Reagan White House and a friend of Gingrich’s for more than three decades." Another of Gingrich's former colleagues said anonymously, “The worst in Newt comes out when he is doing well.”
And Newt doesn't deny that he has a lot of work to do to ensure he doesn't make statements that come back to bite him in the you-know-what. With a past history of making comments about President Obama having a "Kenyan, anti-colonial" view of the world or at one point saying he believed in mandatory healthcare, Gingrich realises that he needs, "...to be more disciplined."
He also has vowed not to attack Romney, believing that he does not need to try and take his votes away. Gingrich wants to focus on big picture issues instead of playing dirty. That, however, does not stop others from playing dirty as he already got a taste of critisim with fliers in Iowa that served to remind the religious folk there about his three marriages. But Gingrich acknowledges that scrutiny comes with running for the presidential office and with the help of his family "coaching" him to stay "calm," he feels like he is ready to brave the storm ahead.
It will be very exciting to see if his rise in popularity will die out in the next few weeks or if we are actually starting to see the real portion of the race begin. I think between the other trailing candidates Gingrich may well have a good shot right now, how good it will be against Romney is another question, however.
Commercial Ads and How Important they are
The importance of commerical Ads in elections is huge. As the Democratic strategist explains it is one way, especially in the begining of a race, for candidates to become known and voters to familiarize themselves with them. It also, as shown in the two contrasting Ads about Bush, is a way to promote the candidate or to attack the candidate.
What Makes a Good TV Campaign Ad?
These two strategists, one Democratic and one Republican, define what it is that makes a good TV campaign Ad. They mention things like staying on subject, making the message of the advertisement clear, asking the viewers to make a choice, and presenting the message in a factual manner that reinforces credibility.
Americans For Hermain Cain
This video shows the "Americans for Hermain Cain" advertisment released after the allegations of Cain's sexual harassment. Aside from the Democratic strategist's opinion of this Ad being disgraceful and "irresponsible" on Cain's part, I thought it was a great example of what presidential advertisment campaigns do. The music is always dramatic, they highlight eye-catching and emotion-evoking words and this one used a number of sound bites from different people to create a very specific story that they aim to sell to viewers.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
The "Worst Gaffe" in Debate History - Can Perry Turn it all Around?
http://swampland.time.com/2011/11/11/perry-backers-question-their-investment-after-debate-gaffe/
We all heard the 56 second horror story that was Rick Perry trying to remember the third of the federal institutions he would get rid if he became President. It was, unfortunately, the cherry on top of all the consensus that Perry is an awful debater, and now some of his donors are having to question their support for him.
Tony Leon, initially a Romney supporter and then a Perry supporter, commented that he has lost faith Perry because of his performance in debates and is now looking at another candidate, “At the end of the day, the debates do not make the President nor should they. But, at the same time, I’ve grown to appreciate of Newt Gingrich because of his debate performances. I haven’t given a dime yet to Newt, but I now think he’s the best choice of all the candidates for somebody who can bring the country back together.” Many of Perry's other donors share the concern that they wasted their money on him and do not hold a strong belief that he will manage to bring himself back.
Although Perry has a lot of his "moneymen" worried and some even backing out, he still has been able to raise $2 million more than Romney in the last quarter, and he is in one of the best states (Texas) to continue raising money - over half of the $17.2 million he raised in the third quarter was from Texas.
There are, however, some who still support Perry. One such individual is Roly Marante who said, “Yes, a lot of the damage has been self inflicted, unforced and, yes, Saturday Night Live is going to be very interesting this week. But the fact is everybody’s still shopping. Romney’s been running for six years and he still can’t close the deal… Newt Gingrich slipped up early in this race and he seems to be surging right now.”
So perhaps its not all over for Perry. He has his boatloads of money and maybe he will be able to make a big comeback now that he embaressed himself enough for the rest of the year. Many supporters also remind us that he is "only human" and people will be able to move on from his slip up.
I think everyone deserves a second chance but after that point its up to them to prove they should be there in the first place.
We all heard the 56 second horror story that was Rick Perry trying to remember the third of the federal institutions he would get rid if he became President. It was, unfortunately, the cherry on top of all the consensus that Perry is an awful debater, and now some of his donors are having to question their support for him.
Tony Leon, initially a Romney supporter and then a Perry supporter, commented that he has lost faith Perry because of his performance in debates and is now looking at another candidate, “At the end of the day, the debates do not make the President nor should they. But, at the same time, I’ve grown to appreciate of Newt Gingrich because of his debate performances. I haven’t given a dime yet to Newt, but I now think he’s the best choice of all the candidates for somebody who can bring the country back together.” Many of Perry's other donors share the concern that they wasted their money on him and do not hold a strong belief that he will manage to bring himself back.
Although Perry has a lot of his "moneymen" worried and some even backing out, he still has been able to raise $2 million more than Romney in the last quarter, and he is in one of the best states (Texas) to continue raising money - over half of the $17.2 million he raised in the third quarter was from Texas.
There are, however, some who still support Perry. One such individual is Roly Marante who said, “Yes, a lot of the damage has been self inflicted, unforced and, yes, Saturday Night Live is going to be very interesting this week. But the fact is everybody’s still shopping. Romney’s been running for six years and he still can’t close the deal… Newt Gingrich slipped up early in this race and he seems to be surging right now.”
So perhaps its not all over for Perry. He has his boatloads of money and maybe he will be able to make a big comeback now that he embaressed himself enough for the rest of the year. Many supporters also remind us that he is "only human" and people will be able to move on from his slip up.
I think everyone deserves a second chance but after that point its up to them to prove they should be there in the first place.
Romney's Secret Weapons! What Mr. 23% Hasn't Been Showing Us
http://thepage.time.com/2011/11/13/halperins-take-the-romney-advantage/
For most of the election so far Romney has been doing well, but not that well. He has been one of the leaders, but not the lead. However as we creep our way in to the new year where the action really starts happening, Mitt Romney may have some secret weapons up his sleeve that give him a very good outlook for winning the candidacy.
The first possible advantage Time Magazine.com points out is that, unlike the other GOP candidates, Romney has had a team of people working behind the scenes in Iowa as well as supporters from now and his last election. Not many are aware of this because he hasn't been visiting the State very much but still, it could end up being a very well set up organization.
The saying "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" is exactly what Romney's campaign leader, Matt Rhoades, has done to ensure a strong defense for his candidate. Apparently Rhoades has detailed files on any and all possible opponents to Romney just in case they should try and cause any trouble for him.
Romneycare may have seemed liked a ticking time bomb for Mitt Romney but because it was so over-talked earlier in the campaign most people either didn't pay much attention or they feel like they got enough of an answer, including the press. It may not be the last that we hear of it but for now Romneycare and the problems it could pose for his campaign don't seem to be much a threat.
When it comes to the media, Romney also hasn't been doing many interviews and its quite possible this was a strategical decision so that he can leave out the big guys like "60 minutes" for a time when he may need more publicity. He has opened himself up to making the most out of his media appearances. The same idea applies to his endorsements which he has not made full use of at this time either. Should he get in to trouble later in the race, he can access those endorsements for an extra boost.
Not that he will necessarily need the money anyway, however. He also has a huge bank account that he has, so far, not made much use of. Again this is very smart because he may need tap in to his own piggy bank at some point to help get his message out there if times get rough.
National polls and key state polls say Romney does better against Obama than the other Republican candidates and polls also suggest that most people expect Romney to become the Republican pick which is helpful to his state of mind and hopefully, for him, a "self-fulfilling prophecy.
Time also points out his advantage in key states, "In Iowa and beyond, Romney remains the only mainline candidate in the race, giving him a near-monopoly on what remains a big chunk of the GOP’s pool of voters. He will have to contest in New Hampshire with Huntsman for this group, but otherwise, this key constituency is mostly going to go to the frontrunner. Even in the era of the Tea Party, that is a healthy portion of the electorate."
And last but certainly not least, Romney and his camp know how to "win, hold and flaunt delegates" more so though any of his opponents. When push came to shove in 2008 between Obama and Clinton this was how Obama really pulled it through so should Romney end up in a similar predicament, he has a powerful advantage knowing how to play the game of delegates.
All in all, this is really the first time in the race so far that Romney has started to seem like a true lead. The course of the next few months will determine, however, if any of it holds true.
For most of the election so far Romney has been doing well, but not that well. He has been one of the leaders, but not the lead. However as we creep our way in to the new year where the action really starts happening, Mitt Romney may have some secret weapons up his sleeve that give him a very good outlook for winning the candidacy.
The first possible advantage Time Magazine.com points out is that, unlike the other GOP candidates, Romney has had a team of people working behind the scenes in Iowa as well as supporters from now and his last election. Not many are aware of this because he hasn't been visiting the State very much but still, it could end up being a very well set up organization.
The saying "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" is exactly what Romney's campaign leader, Matt Rhoades, has done to ensure a strong defense for his candidate. Apparently Rhoades has detailed files on any and all possible opponents to Romney just in case they should try and cause any trouble for him.
Romneycare may have seemed liked a ticking time bomb for Mitt Romney but because it was so over-talked earlier in the campaign most people either didn't pay much attention or they feel like they got enough of an answer, including the press. It may not be the last that we hear of it but for now Romneycare and the problems it could pose for his campaign don't seem to be much a threat.
When it comes to the media, Romney also hasn't been doing many interviews and its quite possible this was a strategical decision so that he can leave out the big guys like "60 minutes" for a time when he may need more publicity. He has opened himself up to making the most out of his media appearances. The same idea applies to his endorsements which he has not made full use of at this time either. Should he get in to trouble later in the race, he can access those endorsements for an extra boost.
Not that he will necessarily need the money anyway, however. He also has a huge bank account that he has, so far, not made much use of. Again this is very smart because he may need tap in to his own piggy bank at some point to help get his message out there if times get rough.
National polls and key state polls say Romney does better against Obama than the other Republican candidates and polls also suggest that most people expect Romney to become the Republican pick which is helpful to his state of mind and hopefully, for him, a "self-fulfilling prophecy.
Time also points out his advantage in key states, "In Iowa and beyond, Romney remains the only mainline candidate in the race, giving him a near-monopoly on what remains a big chunk of the GOP’s pool of voters. He will have to contest in New Hampshire with Huntsman for this group, but otherwise, this key constituency is mostly going to go to the frontrunner. Even in the era of the Tea Party, that is a healthy portion of the electorate."
And last but certainly not least, Romney and his camp know how to "win, hold and flaunt delegates" more so though any of his opponents. When push came to shove in 2008 between Obama and Clinton this was how Obama really pulled it through so should Romney end up in a similar predicament, he has a powerful advantage knowing how to play the game of delegates.
All in all, this is really the first time in the race so far that Romney has started to seem like a true lead. The course of the next few months will determine, however, if any of it holds true.
What Are we Suppose to Get Out of Debates?
This video allows us to hear what America people thought of this Obama/McCain debate. The range of opinions and ideas about who came out stronger in the debate gives us a sense of what a real Presidential debate is suppose to do: make us think one candidate is better than the other, as oppose to the Cain/Gingrich debate which wanted to make both candidates look good. One caller hit it on the head saying it was "a lot of finger pointing," something that often comes out of Presidential debates.
A Different Kind of Debate
Here we have a clip from the Presidential Debate between Cain and Gingrich and it is clearly not the kind of debate we are used to seeing in the election/campaign process. The two are sitting together at a table and, far from debating, are helping each other along as if they are running together. This "Lincoln-Douglas" style debate allows both candidates to speak for longer and make each other look good so both end up leaving with a positive a performance as possible, rather than one trying to make the other look like a fool.
How Hard is it to Actually get in to a Presidential Debate?
Buddy Roemer talks about his exclusion from the Presidential Debates, highlighting a possible problem, yet again, in our electorial processes. Roemer was both a Governor and Congressman but most people have never heard about him (inlcuding myself), partly because he was not involved in any of the debates so far. He talks about the different blocks the sponors of the debates put up to candidates like himself such as reaching a certain percent in national polls and most importantly, he feels, raising certain amounts of money. Roemer says the biggest difference between him and the other candidates is "money and politics."
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Social Media and The Youth
This is yet another example of the importance of social media today in politics. It is an especially effective means of getting the youth involved in campaigns and other political events because of the knowledge and creativity that young people have in areas of social media. It is a way to recruit new interest and maintain existing interest in politics.
Social Media, Putting the Power in the Hands of the People
The young man in this video talks about how social media like youtube has allowed the average person to get out and become their own source of news and information. This ability to spread knowledge and ideas faster than ever has a tremendous impact on politics because there is no longer a way to really control what the public finds out about or how the public becomes mobilized in one way or another.
Will Cain's Sexual Harassment Claims be the Beginning of the End of his Campaign?
http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/06/politics/cain-allegations/index.html
Just about a week ago, Politico came out with a report on allegations of sexual harassment by Herman Cain against two women working in the National Restaurant Association, headed by Cain in the late '90s. The media has obviously done back flips over this information, but despite the severity of the claims, there seems to be, at this point at least, little change in polls regarding Cain's popularity. Still with the number of Political careers ended by sex scandals, I'm sure Cain is hoping this one won't get out of hand.
The allegations themselves seem to be lacking in strength at the moment because the details are sparse and the women at this point wish to remain anonymous. In Politico's report it was also stated that the two women left the association with settlements or severance pay but Cain denies this and as there is no proof for the time being to back the claim.
Cain has handled the issue by insisting that it is simply false and "more circus than substance." He now avoids discussing the claim at all and until anymore information is released that may be his best defence. Democrat and former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson believes, however, that Republicans in general have a bigger problem concerning women's rights saying, "I think what you're seeing is a huge assault on women's rights in the Republican parties, and an extreme right-wing that has taken over that is going to make it very difficult for anybody in a general election in the Republican Party to be a centrist." Republicans of course are just plain angry that the media has once again attempted to de-rail a politician with little, sound evidence.
Even if Cain did commit these crimes it doesn't mean his career would be over as a politician but it definitely would not make a good out-look for the coming election. The truth (or something posing as it) will make itself visible sooner or later and unless more serious accusations come out with damning evidence then Herman Cain will most likely be able to slide by this one. In either case I'm so over hearing about the corruption of the media and politicians who should be enrolled in sex addicts anonymous! Get a hold of yourselves people...sheesh...
Just about a week ago, Politico came out with a report on allegations of sexual harassment by Herman Cain against two women working in the National Restaurant Association, headed by Cain in the late '90s. The media has obviously done back flips over this information, but despite the severity of the claims, there seems to be, at this point at least, little change in polls regarding Cain's popularity. Still with the number of Political careers ended by sex scandals, I'm sure Cain is hoping this one won't get out of hand.
The allegations themselves seem to be lacking in strength at the moment because the details are sparse and the women at this point wish to remain anonymous. In Politico's report it was also stated that the two women left the association with settlements or severance pay but Cain denies this and as there is no proof for the time being to back the claim.
Cain has handled the issue by insisting that it is simply false and "more circus than substance." He now avoids discussing the claim at all and until anymore information is released that may be his best defence. Democrat and former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson believes, however, that Republicans in general have a bigger problem concerning women's rights saying, "I think what you're seeing is a huge assault on women's rights in the Republican parties, and an extreme right-wing that has taken over that is going to make it very difficult for anybody in a general election in the Republican Party to be a centrist." Republicans of course are just plain angry that the media has once again attempted to de-rail a politician with little, sound evidence.
Even if Cain did commit these crimes it doesn't mean his career would be over as a politician but it definitely would not make a good out-look for the coming election. The truth (or something posing as it) will make itself visible sooner or later and unless more serious accusations come out with damning evidence then Herman Cain will most likely be able to slide by this one. In either case I'm so over hearing about the corruption of the media and politicians who should be enrolled in sex addicts anonymous! Get a hold of yourselves people...sheesh...
Gingrich and Cain: Opponents or BFFs?
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/67681.html
Presidential hopefuls Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain may have attended the same Republican debate on Saturday but you wouldn't exactly describe their interactions with one another as anything resembling debate. In fact it was more like two buddies playing for the same team and standing up for one another whether an attack was made or not.
And despite attendees spending $150 just to be there, the crowd seemed satisfied with Gingrich and Cain's non-competitive demeanors while agreeing on the failures of the current administration and its leader. Interestingly, the very recent issue of Cain's sexual harrassment charges did not make it into the debate, and accordingly, Cain showed his gratitude by saying in response to an opportunity for disagreement, "I’m supposed to have a minute to disagree with something he said, but I don’t.” The debate was instead used to discuss topics like Medicare, Medicaide, and Social Security, all of which demonstrated a general concensus among the two candidates, especially when talking about Obama's lack of progress on them.
In fact this debate was so pleasant between Cain and Gingrich that they both gave each other extensive compliments as part of set ups to post-topic questioning. One of these examples went as follows:
Presidential hopefuls Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain may have attended the same Republican debate on Saturday but you wouldn't exactly describe their interactions with one another as anything resembling debate. In fact it was more like two buddies playing for the same team and standing up for one another whether an attack was made or not.
And despite attendees spending $150 just to be there, the crowd seemed satisfied with Gingrich and Cain's non-competitive demeanors while agreeing on the failures of the current administration and its leader. Interestingly, the very recent issue of Cain's sexual harrassment charges did not make it into the debate, and accordingly, Cain showed his gratitude by saying in response to an opportunity for disagreement, "I’m supposed to have a minute to disagree with something he said, but I don’t.” The debate was instead used to discuss topics like Medicare, Medicaide, and Social Security, all of which demonstrated a general concensus among the two candidates, especially when talking about Obama's lack of progress on them.
In fact this debate was so pleasant between Cain and Gingrich that they both gave each other extensive compliments as part of set ups to post-topic questioning. One of these examples went as follows:
Social Media as a Platform for the Under-Represented Voices of the People
This clip is about how social media, like facebook and twitter, has presented an opportunity for those who do not feel adequately represented in either the Democratic or Republican parties to make an impact on the 2012 election by joining Americans Elect, a new, social-media-inspired, website that actually gets Americans to vote online and choose a potential third party representative. The speaker emphasizes how social media has finally allowed for the many unheard sentiments of "the people" to be broadcasted and taken seriously.
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